Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-13 2.502071 2.666059 2.846595 3.062496 3.317074 3.612366 3.988263
2025-04-20 2.256678 2.457843 2.690795 2.986790 3.363175 3.842536 4.532514
2025-04-27 2.234875 2.479171 2.774649 3.171431 3.714729 4.479929 5.760859
2025-05-04 2.107120 2.360591 2.674557 3.109703 3.732812 4.670202 6.425481
2025-05-11 2.051789 2.321859 2.664751 3.156340 3.896443 5.101273 7.727432
2025-05-18 1.943130 2.208242 2.548398 3.043308 3.805447 5.093676 8.137648
2025-05-25 1.892077 2.164290 2.519297 3.047981 3.892554 5.414378 9.605140
2025-06-01 1.832728 2.106113 2.466828 3.013205 3.910425 5.611058 10.993006
2025-06-08 1.784728 2.059883 2.426959 2.992120 3.945756 5.850498 12.968673
2025-06-15 1.756006 2.037863 2.419185 3.018805 4.067882 6.323979 17.613608
2025-06-22 1.690362 1.962861 2.332093 2.914069 3.936470 6.154456 17.713893
2025-06-29 1.656478 1.929997 2.303838 2.900977 3.975029 6.427912 23.343171
2025-07-06 1.615481 1.887141 2.260959 2.864354 3.970386 6.607537 31.586615
2025-07-13 1.597147 1.874839 2.261841 2.899144 4.111429 7.273262 167.034588
2025-07-20 1.595590 1.885424 2.296431 2.992491 4.390130 8.608668 NaN
2025-07-27 1.569772 1.860631 2.276471 2.990224 4.462436 9.279810 NaN
2025-08-03 1.547592 1.840079 2.261743 2.995594 4.553026 10.145597 NaN
2025-08-10 1.507124 1.792087 2.202978 2.918306 4.437408 9.904392 NaN
2025-08-17 1.483961 1.768364 2.180830 2.905939 4.477745 10.560135 NaN
2025-08-24 1.460231 1.743122 2.155322 2.885750 4.496287 11.142398 NaN
2025-08-31 1.436227 1.716810 2.127156 2.858887 4.494494 11.622913 NaN
2025-09-07 1.425949 1.710098 2.129346 2.888442 4.643647 13.524888 NaN
2025-09-14 1.388301 1.662449 2.065298 2.789574 4.438027 12.197041 NaN